Are We Seeing a Seasonal Lull — or a Market Shift?
The Manhattan real estate market entered Q2 with solid momentum. Rolling 30-day contract activity crossed 1,100 — a benchmark not seen during any of the past three spring seasons. But by late April, that momentum began to slow, aligning with seasonal expectations and possible emerging economic uncertainties.
Spring breaks, religious holidays, and travel typically lead to a dip in activity this time of year. That’s part of the current story. But a few broader market signals suggest it may not be just seasonality at play.
Contract Activity: Seasonal Dip or Something More?
Only 206 contracts were signed in the final week of April, a roughly 16% drop from the prior week. While that figure is still above historical lows, it’s lighter than what’s typically needed to sustain a strong spring market.
This slowdown overlaps with Passover and Easter, which likely muted activity. Still, comparisons to 2023 — when regional banking stress pulled weekly contract signings down to 140 — suggest it’s worth watching whether this is a brief pause or a signal of a more cautious market.
Looking Ahead: Questions Remain
Heading into May, the key question is whether contract activity can rebound back well above 200 deals per week in a stable way. So far, there’s no sharp drop, but there's also no clear sign of acceleration.
As Noah Black of UrbanDigs recently noted, “We are in the midst of a shifting market. It’s too early to tell how far, how deep, or how severe the shift will be — but you can see the early stages of it developing in the data.”
Pricing data remains solid for now. Condo resale prices in March averaged $1,493 per square foot — likely reflecting contracts signed during a stronger stretch in late winter. As April closings are finalized, we expect that trend to continue in the short term, though there’s a risk that data will soften if activity remains muted.
Conclusion: A Transitional Moment
The Manhattan market appears to be in a transitional phase — not accelerating, but not sharply declining either. The coming weeks will help clarify whether April’s slowdown was a short-term seasonal pause or an early indication of broader market hesitation. For now, the data suggests a market that’s still active but more cautious as it digests new economic variables.
Bryant Park Spring Makers Market
Every Friday - Sunday in May
Shop local at the Makers Market by Urbanspace. More than 175 vendors will showcase art, jewelry, food, and handcrafted goods at Bryant Park from April 18 through June 1.
Click HERE for more details!
Kite Festival at Brooklyn Bridge Park
May 17th, 2025
Celebrate spring at the annual Kite Festival on Saturday, May 17th! Bring your own kite, purchase one, or craft your own on-site, and enjoy a day filled with hands-on activities, classic lawn games, and family-friendly fun. Free and open to all ages.
Click HERE for more details!
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