The Tides of NYC Real Estate Flow — Back and Forth

For all the doom and gloom that has been reported by this agent and most, if not all, firms, news agencies and other brokers, the national real estate market posted a 5.1 percent gain in March, according to the National Association of Realtors, back from February’s 7.1 percent drop. Preliminary reports are also telling us that gains are expected to continue through spring.

Locally, the buzz around the water cooler at real estate brokerage houses and real estate attorneys' offices is that momentum is swinging towards the seller, just a bit, and the $3 million-plus segment of the market is seeing a gradual resurgence.

But why? Did sellers finally drop their price enough to intrigue the buyers? Is the weather finally nice enough to trigger the spring sale market? Was the stock market’s bounce back to over 18,000 bringing more buying power to the table?

Yes, yes and yes.

Sellers got smart, and some got desperate coming out of the long slow winter, and reduced their prices. The spring weather always has a positive effect on the Manhattan real estate sales market, and lately, it has been gorgeous out during Sunday open houses. And who doesn’t like a robust stock market to fuel a strong real estate surge in Manhattan?

But all tides flow back to sea, and when our water recedes again, what will we find? For starters, the super-luxury market is still very sluggish, if not completely stopped, and if you haven’t looked up at the Manhattan skyline recently, there are more cranes than ever before. So, this huge tidal wave of unsold, new development property is about hit our shores. Oh yeah, and then there's the presidential election this fall, China’s big economic slow-down and the Fed's ever-looming rate hike.

For now, let us enjoy these waters, where sellers are enjoying a brisk spring and buyers are feeling confident. As for tomorrow, well, tides have a habit of changing. Back and forth.

Market Data in Real Time

As the only brokerage firm with a real-time Markets app, Compass is changing the way we thing about quarterly reporting. Today I am excited to introduce a new quarterly deliverable called "Manhattan Neighborhood Insights." With information taken directly from the Compass Markets App, we have highlighted overall trends and the performance of specific neighborhoods.

Download the Compass Markets app directly from the app store for more real-time market data. CLICK HERE

New York State of Mind

In January, the New York Department of Finance reported that, for the first time in history, the total property value for New York City has risen over the trillion-dollar mark. Manhattan’s surging market combined with an incredible construction pace in Brooklyn and Queens brought total market value of taxable property to $1.072 trillion, a more than 10 percent increase for the 2017 fiscal year.

These types of numbers do and will encourage the average seller of an averaged priced property in Manhattan (which happens to be about $1.75 million, by the way) to price his or her apartment as if they were solely responsible for launching property values over the trillion-dollar mark. Sellers must, instead, do themselves a favor, and unburden themselves from this temptation. More and more, the pendulum seems to be swinging to the buyer side as the market adjusts itself after a rough start to the year.

I had Barry Weidenbaum, partner at real estate law firm Weidenbaum & Harari, in to speak to the team recently, and he shared what he is seeing in the market. His outlook is, of course, very different from a real estate professional's point of view, but a real estate attorney's perspectives is valuable and can shed light on an ever-changing market, enabling us to adjust quickly and nimbly, before the market does it without us. He stated that, while in 2015 the NON-mortgage contingency was commonplace in deals, the mortgage contingency is being found in deal contracts more and more as 2016 unfolds. Sellers accepting mortgage contingency could be the begging signs of a shift in the market from seller to buyer. Of course, no one knows for sure, but we are all noticing a slower super-luxury market, which is now starting to affect the luxury market (properties valued at over $3 million). The $1 to $3 million category is still strong, but you better price your two-bedroom correctly in the market.

I visited an owner last week who put his two-bedroom co-op on the market in Lenox Hill matching the lowest priced listing on the market at the time, rather than trying to price the home too high. The bulk of the 40-plus two-bedroom, two-bathroom homes at the time were priced between $1.5 million and $1.6 million, but by positioning his property at such a compelling number — knowing that his layout, finishes and overall quality were on par with his $1.5 to $1.6 million competitors — he knew the market would have a huge reaction to his listing. And it did: He received seven offers the first weekend, and by the time the second open house was finished, he had 11 more offers — three more than expected. From these 14 to 15 offers, the seller brought pendulum back to his side of the market. He accepted a NON-contingent offer over the $1.55-million mark, and he controlled his own destiny.

The lesson? Stay ahead of the market and make the market react to you. It’s the best way to move property in the current market. And, if you're a buyer, remember, there are 39 other properties in Lenox Hill that aren't receiving much interest and have nervous owners ready to strike a contingent deal with you.