10% Down / 10% Up (Well, about 8%)
It’s been a roller coaster of a year in the Manhattan (and Brooklyn) real estate market. A sluggish start to the year—with very low inventory and seemingly picky buyers—gave way to the beginning of the 2026 spring selling season, which initially fell flat on its face. In New York City, the strongest time of year to sell real estate is generally from March 1 through about June 15. However, this year’s kickoff in March was a dud due to geoeconomic concerns, geopolitical turmoil, and higher interest rates. But by April, many of those fears began to settle, and the market found a surprisingly steady rhythm, leading to almost a 20% swing between inventory supply and the in-contract market by May.
Inventory has struggled all season, and last month was no exception. Hovering roughly 8% to 10% below last year’s levels, overall supply never really had a chance to get going. In a typical spring market, inventory peaks around May 15, give or take, with the five-year average ranging between roughly 7,500 and 7,800 listings in Manhattan. This year, however, supply settled closer to 6,700 listings—roughly 10% below normal peak levels.
And even that number is misleading. Buyers really only have a fraction of the inventory to choose from because a significant portion of the market is made up of “stale listings”—properties that are mispriced and have been sitting on the market for 90-plus days. That stale inventory now represents nearly half of all active listings. As a result, buyers have spent most of the season struggling to find fresh inventory.
Meanwhile, sellers who priced their properties correctly—or at least in line with what buyers perceived as fair market value—have enjoyed serious interest and, in some cases, bidding wars. The strongest and freshest listings continue to move quickly. Roughly the top 1,700 listings that hit the market go into contract within the first 30 days. In March alone, 16% of all listings went into contract during that initial 30-day period, leaving the remaining inventory to struggle and slowly discover the price point buyers would ultimately accept.
That brings us to the in-contract market, which is where we’ve seen the real surprise. Contract activity has consistently remained about 8% to 10% higher year-over-year since roughly the second week of April. At the time of this newsletter, the gain sits closer to 8%, though it climbed as high as 10% throughout April and May and appears poised to continue into June—which is somewhat unusual for this time of year.
Agents, mortgage lenders/bankers, and real estate attorneys do expect the in-contract market to eventually taper off, as it naturally does heading into summer. However, many professionals in the industry believe this spring market may still have some legs because March’s weak start delayed a portion of the normal seasonal activity. Only time will tell.
So what does all this mean? Low inventory combined with stronger demand naturally raises the question: could Manhattan finally see a meaningful upward correction in pricing after nearly 10 years of stagnation? In short—probably not, at least not broadly across the market.
Today’s demand is highly selective. Buyers are aggressively pursuing only the best-positioned properties—those that are renovated, fresh to market, and priced intelligently. When that combination exists, buyers are eager to move quickly, and on occasion, we’re even seeing bidding wars that feel reminiscent of 2015 all over again. But it’s important to remember: this is not 2015. Sellers who think it is are often left behind in today’s market cycle.
The current “tempered frenzy” is being driven by several factors: a brutally competitive rental market pushing renters toward ownership, a lack of quality inventory, and buyers reacting quickly when they finally see value. But perhaps the biggest reason is something more fundamental—New York will always be New York.
This city remains one of the most transitory and aspirational places in the world. People continue to come here to build careers, chase dreams, create wealth, and reinvent themselves. No matter who the mayor is, no matter the threat of higher taxes, higher interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, or negative headlines, New York City continues to attract ambitious people who want to make it here. And for those who have already made it, there will always be a new generation ready to take the baton and leave their own mark on the Big Apple.
