With President-Elect Trump set to take office in less than 50 days, he and his transition team are well underway in selecting the cabinet and key staff positions. In the meantime, stock markets around the world are betting big that large, publicly traded companies will benefit hugely from a Trump administration. As a result, investors are dumping bonds for stocks, which in turn is driving up interest rates.
What are we real estate professionals going to see at ground level, in the day-to-day business of selling or buying your most prized assets?
Historically, the New York City real estate market follows the trends of Wall Street. When the Streeters feel bullish, they tend to not only buy stocks, but real estate as well. At a first glance, we should assume that this will benefit our local housing market. In fact, the housing market saw strong growth nationally in both September and October.
Here in the city, the day after the election, I saw a brief pause and then a full-steam-ahead, petal-to-the-metal rush forward. Buyers are moving ahead at a strong clip to beat interest rate increases and get their rates locked in as soon as possible. There has also been an international influx over the last few weeks from Asia and even from some Russian investors. From first-time buyers to new investors to seasoned professionals, I'm seeing tremendous activity in requests, offers and pushes to get deals closed before the end of the year. In some cases, I am seeing more negotiability, seller concessions and creative offers being made but deals are proceeding nonetheless.
It seems the short-term Trump effect has been a strong jolt in the arm for the real estate market, with more than a little watchfulness. The long-term effect, meanwhile, is anyone's guess. Any predictions on what the local, national and international economies will do after Trump takes office is mere speculation at this point. Is it a wait-and-see or a bullish push to jump in?
Wall Street’s betting big. Will you?
November's Inventory Numbers
On average November saw a decrease of 23% over October's inventory. The three-bedroom and more category saw the largest decrease of just over 30%.
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- Percent change in home sales for the previous two quarters
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