Manhattan Real Estate in October: Resilient but Restrained

The Manhattan real estate market experienced a noticeable degree of stagnation in October—a cautious shift in a month that historically sees strong, robust contract activity. What’s behind the cautiousness? Is it mayoral election trepidation, the lingering “lock-in effect,” or perhaps the booming rental market drawing would-be buyers away from the sales market? The answer may be a combination of all of the above—and then some.

No matter who you're voting for, it's clear that the upcoming mayoral election is weighing heavily on everyone’s mind. According to Compass, open house traffic is down 30% over the past two weeks, suggesting that many buyers are holding back, waiting to see what happens after next week's election. At the same time, the media is flooding the public with emotionally charged messaging, portraying this race as a referendum on Manhattan’s future, with major tax implications, rezoning initiatives, housing proposals and more—all of which are presented as potentially game-changing (or game-ending), depending on your point of view.

As a result, many buyers have retreated to the sidelines, cautious and uncertain, waiting for the "storm" to pass. I can say that the city feels somewhat divided, or at least confused, with each side glued to its preferred news outlet, seeking reinforcement rather than perspective. And so, buyers hunker down, waiting to see what direction Manhattan will take after the votes are counted.

New York City has weathered countless elections, led by mayors with vastly different agendas—and yet, we’re still here. The skyline is still intact. Life goes on.

Once buyers emerge from their self-imposed caves and re-enter the market, they may return to a very different sales landscape than the one they paused from: lower inventory, easing mortgage rates, and a potentially stronger position for sellers who stayed the course through the uncertainty. Some in the industry are predicting a post-election resurgence in buyer activity. But, as always, we won’t know until the fog clears.

Still, the election isn’t the only factor at play in this market cooldown.

The persistent “lock-in effect”—where owners sit tight on ultra-low mortgage rates—continues to limit inventory. This year’s fall market has still yet to hit the 7,000 active listing threshold, staying 300–400 units shy of recent seasonal norms. This supply constraint isn’t helping, but it’s also not the only drag.

Arguably the biggest diversion of buyer attention has come from the extraordinarily strong rental market. Median rents in Manhattan hit a record $4,800/month back in May, one of the highest levels ever recorded. At the same time, persistently high mortgage rates (although more relief is supposedly around the corner) have pushed many would-be buyers into the rental pool instead of the ownership lane.

So now we enter the final stretch of the fall season. The Manhattan market, for all its noise and headwinds, can best be described as resilient but restrained. Prices are softening slightly, mortgage rates are fluctuating but overall are heading in the right directions, and buyers seem to be in a “wait-and-see” mode as the election approaches.

But many of us in the real estate industry believe that once the dust settles—as it always does—we’ll see a wave of re-engagement from sidelined buyers. Those who tried to time the market may find themselves rushing back in, looking to buy in a city that remains, for all its ups and downs, one of the most dynamic and desirable places in the world.

We’ve seen it before, and we’ll see it again. Another election will pass, and we’ll all still be here—living, working, and thriving in this amazing city called Manhattan (and Brooklyn).