Fall Market, Part Two: Holding Its Breath
As we enter the second half of the 2025 fall real estate selling season in New York City, buyers and sellers alike are closely watching the market. Interest rates, overall listing supply, macro- and microeconomic conditions, and the upcoming mayoral election are just a few of the factors influencing decisions. In many ways, the city’s real estate market is collectively holding its breath, waiting to see how things will unfold in October.
Fall is considered the second-busiest season, trailing only the spring market, which historically dominates NYC in total dollar volume, number of units sold, and seasonal duration. The spring market typically runs from February through June, offering a broader window for deals to be made. In contrast, the fall market is far more condensed. It begins around Labor Day in early September, when new listings hit the market, and runs through October and the first few weeks of November, when those listings typically convert into signed contracts. We are now at that inflection point. Just as October hits its stride, the holidays appear on the horizon and the season fades. This compressed timeline creates a heightened sense of urgency and intensity—for sellers looking to get under contract quickly, and for buyers eager to find and close on their dream home before year’s end.
Interest rates are always a crucial factor in real estate, but in fall 2025 they’re particularly impactful—especially in the “non-luxury” segment, defined as properties priced under $4 million. This segment has been slower to recover, largely because these buyers are more likely to rely on financing and are more sensitive to rising rates. In contrast, luxury buyers—those purchasing properties over $4 million—are often all-cash buyers, making them less affected by rate changes. Over the past two years, this divide has led to consistently stronger performance in the luxury market. That’s why the recent drop in mortgage rates has been a welcome development, particularly for non-luxury buyers. Between September 15 and 22, nearly 200 apartments went into contract—about 50% more than the prior week—giving the fall season a strong start. However, in the following week, from September 22 to 29, the market flattened somewhat, with 178 contracts signed, representing an 8.7% decrease from the week before. This early stretch of the fall season continues to show a Jekyll-and-Hyde dynamic, reflecting mixed momentum as the market finds its footing.
Supply is also playing a major role in shaping this year’s seasonal market. Inventory is rising, though it hasn’t yet reached the levels typically expected at the height of the fall season. Historically, fall peaks at around 7,500 active listings. Over the past two years, however, inventory topped out at around 6,900 and 7,300 listings, respectively. Many sellers remain hesitant to list, especially in what still feels like a lingering buyer’s market—a sentiment that has persisted since the post-COVID rebound of late 2021. Ironically, this reluctance has helped keep pricing relatively stable, even as demand has cooled. Fewer listings mean less downward pressure on prices, which has been a key stabilizing force over the past couple of years.
As we move deeper into the season, the big question becomes: after listings hit the market in September, how will buyers respond in October? Will we see the typical seasonal uptick in contract activity, or will external factors—such as economic uncertainty or political noise—dampen both supply and buyer motivation? The next 30 days will provide the answer.
Ultimately, the success of Manhattan and Brooklyn’s fall market in 2025 will likely hinge on the path of mortgage rates. If rates continue to trend downward into the late fall and winter months, they could be the catalyst for a strong season—and possibly a strong start to 2026. Lower rates will help buyers feel more confident and empowered to make offers, while also improving affordability. This creates a window of opportunity, particularly for buyers willing to act while inventory builds and competition remains low.
For sellers, success this fall will come down to pricing, presentation, and accessibility. A well-priced, well-presented, and easy-to-show listing will be the most competitive. And in the end, both buyers and sellers stand to benefit if interest rates continue their descent. Let’s go, Fall 2025!
Local Happenings
Pickle For PINK
October 8, 2025
This year, we’re back—and bigger! Pickle for Pink is returning for round two, and we’d love for you to join us. Whether you played, donated, or cheered from the sidelines last year, you were part of something powerful. Let’s build on that momentum and make this year’s impact even greater. Click HERE to learn more!
NYC Wine & Food Festival
October 15-19, 2025
The Food Network New York City Wine & Food Festival is NYC’s premier culinary event, now in its 18th year. Over five days, it brings together world-class chefs, tastings, dinners, and master classes in a new waterfront Seaport campus celebrating food, drink, and culture. Click HERE to learn more!
Village Halloween Parade
October 31, 2025
The Village Halloween Parade brings NYC to life through creativity and participation, turning public spaces into vibrant arenas of art, play, and community. Its sensory spectacle leaves a lasting impact, fostering connection, continuity, and the city’s imaginative spirit. Click HERE to learn more!
Featured Listings
Stay Connected
